Family offices recognize that forecasts of future returns need to incorporate the potential for surprises. They rely on “Monte Carlo” methods, named after the famed Monte Carlo casino in Monaco. As the name implies, these techniques recognize the element of chance inherent in forecasting.
from Forbes Real Time http://www.forbes.com/sites/toddmillay/2017/07/06/making-predictions-in-an-unpredictable-world/
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